Performance metrics for 8000m without supplemental oxygen

I think this is a hard question to answer, because there’s a big person to person variation in performance at altitude. It seems to come down to genetics even more than to training, in my experience.

On the low end, I’ve met 2 people who’ve climbed Cho Oyu and Manaslu without oxygen, with a very modest amount of training, maybe 8000 feet of vertical gain/week. Lots of people on this forum would have no problem doing the same, without training any harder than they already are, provided they have the natural physiology for it.

A friend and I made a attempt on Broad Peak, this year (without oxygen), and I think our experience shows the variation between people, pretty well.

My training was 7 months of hiking, averaging 15,000 vertical gain per week, with some big weeks above 20,000 gain, and a few long days with more than 10,000 gain. I did a max strength phase and some muscular endurance pack training.

My training averaged around 130 hrTSS/day in my biggest weeks, or higher than that (160) if I use Scott’s fudge factors like adding 10 TSS per 1000 feet of gain. I’m just adding up TSS/week and dividing by 7 to get these numbers, I don’t know the exponentially weighted CTL (I’m too cheap to pay for trainingpeaks).

My partner did no organized training, maybe a quarter of the total volume I did. Some weeks he’d do a long hike or two, some times he wouldn’t train at all. He did no strength training at all and a small amount of pack training.

At low elevations, I was really fit after all that training, much faster than my partner. At around 13,000 feet, our speeds were about even. Above 17,000 feet, I couldn’t possibly keep up with him, he moved at least 50% faster than me.

We both turned around near 7700m. Fitness wasn’t the main reason for giving up, but it was a factor for me, I was among the slowest people on summit day.

So, I guess my answer is, “depending on genetics, you might get to 8000m without much training, or it might still be very hard even with a lot of training, and some people are very prone to AMS and might not be able to do it at all”.

Also, every one of those peaks is different. I think Cho and Manaslu are probably the easiest, especially in the fall, when there are 100 other people on route, having ropes and a broken trail makes a big difference. Also, getting to 8000 or 8200 without oxygen is much easier than making it to 8800.

With my experience, I too of the opinion that it is not just the fitness that matters it is the body physiology at ALTITUDE, how it responds to altitude, that is crucial in any high altitude mountaineering expedition.
I was on Everest North Face during 2015 April-May at the age of 62yrs!. Before deciding to try Mt.Everest, I too was intrigued as to how I can translate my fitness at planes to success at high altitude. I am a Crossfitter, 4.30 marathoner, frequent trekking and climbing in Himalaya upto 20000′, marathon at Antarctica, Everest Base Camp Marathon et la. But climbing above 7000mts was missing in recent yrs though I had reached that altitude way back in 1992. I met few veteran mountaineers, doctors to get that idea and feel confident that I am fit enough to think of Everest Summit at 62yrs!. Nobody could give me exact idea as to how I can relate my fitness level to mountains.
I was doing very well during acclimatization walks, ice craft, stay at BC, at par with youngsters…..but when I started my trek to ABC (24th April) I was feeling dehydrated, breathless, weak in my limbs and retraced my path after 5hrs trek and came back to BC! Was planning to try again on 26th.
But it is a different story that we were struck by an earth quack on 25th and we had to abort our expedition on 30th.
Still I am bogged by the question as to what is the equation between fitness at planes to fitness above 7000mts, how far it would be feasible for me to plan it again.