I think this is a hard question to answer, because there’s a big person to person variation in performance at altitude. It seems to come down to genetics even more than to training, in my experience.
On the low end, I’ve met 2 people who’ve climbed Cho Oyu and Manaslu without oxygen, with a very modest amount of training, maybe 8000 feet of vertical gain/week. Lots of people on this forum would have no problem doing the same, without training any harder than they already are, provided they have the natural physiology for it.
A friend and I made a attempt on Broad Peak, this year (without oxygen), and I think our experience shows the variation between people, pretty well.
My training was 7 months of hiking, averaging 15,000 vertical gain per week, with some big weeks above 20,000 gain, and a few long days with more than 10,000 gain. I did a max strength phase and some muscular endurance pack training.
My training averaged around 130 hrTSS/day in my biggest weeks, or higher than that (160) if I use Scott’s fudge factors like adding 10 TSS per 1000 feet of gain. I’m just adding up TSS/week and dividing by 7 to get these numbers, I don’t know the exponentially weighted CTL (I’m too cheap to pay for trainingpeaks).
My partner did no organized training, maybe a quarter of the total volume I did. Some weeks he’d do a long hike or two, some times he wouldn’t train at all. He did no strength training at all and a small amount of pack training.
At low elevations, I was really fit after all that training, much faster than my partner. At around 13,000 feet, our speeds were about even. Above 17,000 feet, I couldn’t possibly keep up with him, he moved at least 50% faster than me.
We both turned around near 7700m. Fitness wasn’t the main reason for giving up, but it was a factor for me, I was among the slowest people on summit day.
So, I guess my answer is, “depending on genetics, you might get to 8000m without much training, or it might still be very hard even with a lot of training, and some people are very prone to AMS and might not be able to do it at all”.
Also, every one of those peaks is different. I think Cho and Manaslu are probably the easiest, especially in the fall, when there are 100 other people on route, having ropes and a broken trail makes a big difference. Also, getting to 8000 or 8200 without oxygen is much easier than making it to 8800.